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AS Roma vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
Borja Mayoral 29'
H. Mkhitaryan 22'
G. Mancini 20'
E. Colley 61'
1/31/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 20Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

AS Roma55%
×Draw25%
Hellas Verona21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.62
Hellas Verona
0.89

AS Roma creates 82% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.60
Hellas Verona
1.04

allows per match

AS Roma
0.74
Hellas Verona
1.64

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
79%
AS Roma or Hellas Verona
75%
Draw or Hellas Verona
45%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
29%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
80%
AS Roma 2+ goals
48%
AS Roma 3+ goals
22%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
59%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
22%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
73%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.74 · 21 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.60 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.62

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + AS Roma defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AS Roma scores more
55%
level
25%
Hellas Verona scores more
21%

AS Roma at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Borja MayoralAS RomaAS Roma · F
8.2

Match Events

12'
M. Kumbulla← C. Smalling
17'
Lorenzo Pellegrini
20'
G. Mancini↳ L. Pellegrini
22'
H. Mkhitaryan↳ Borja Mayoral
23'
Davide Faraoni
29'
Borja Mayoral
38'
Marash Kumbulla
46'
K. Lasagna← N. Kalinić
57'
E. Colley← M. Zaccagni
57'
F. Dimarco← D. Faraoni
57'
Daniel Bessa← I. Ilić
61'
E. Colley↳ Daniel Bessa
71'
B. Cristante← Gonzalo Villar
80'
I. Udogie← F. Ceccherini
86'
Bruno Peres← R. Karsdorp
86'
Carles Pérez← Borja Mayoral
86'
A. Diawara← J. Veretout

Possession

48%AS

Shots

15AS

Pass accuracy

50%AS

Statistics

ASHellas
Overview
48%Possession52%
15Total Shots8
4Corners5
15Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots8
6On Target1
5Off Target2
4Blocked5
12Inside Box5
3Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
471Total Passes492
368Accurate Passes391
78%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides6

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Hellas Verona

AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 3-1 in Serie A on January 31, 2021.

Goals: G. Mancini (20'), H. Mkhitaryan (22'), Borja Mayoral (29'), E. Colley (61').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.