AS Roma 2–1 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie A

AS Roma

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hellas Verona

E. Dzeko 45+3'

J. Veretout 10' (pen)

M. Pessina 47'

7/15/2020

Serie A · Round 33Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

AS Roma55%

×Draw25%

Hellas Verona21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS RomaExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.89

AS Roma

1.62

Hellas Verona

0.89

AS Roma creates 82% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

1.60

creates per match

1.04

0.74

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

AS Roma

1.60

Hellas Verona

1.04

allows per match

AS Roma

0.74

Hellas Verona

1.64

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more

Hellas Verona-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw

79%

AS Roma or Hellas Verona

75%

Draw or Hellas Verona

45%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+

29%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals

80%

AS Roma 2+ goals

48%

AS Roma 3+ goals

22%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

59%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

22%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)

73%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.74 · 21 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.60 + Hellas Verona defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.62

Hellas Verona attack 1.04 + AS Roma defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AS Roma scores more

55%

level

25%

Hellas Verona scores more

21%

AS Roma at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

Roger Ibañez

AS Roma · D

7.7

Match Events

9'

M. Veloso

10'

J. VeretoutPenalty

19'

M. Kumbulla← F. Dimarco

45+3'

E. Dzeko↳ L. Spinazzola

47'

M. Pessina↳ M. Zaccagni

63'

G. Mancini

63'

V. Verre← V. Eysseric

64'

M. Zaccagni← E. Salcedo Mora

66'

A. Diawara← B. Cristante

66'

L. Pellegrini← N. Zaniolo

66'

B. Peres← D. Zappacosta

67'

M. Pessina

71'

N. Zaniolo

78'

B. Cristante

83'

S. Amrabat← M. Stepinski

83'

M. Veloso← Badu

88'

H. Mkhitaryan← D. Perotti

90+2'

Ibanez← G. Villar del Fraile

90+5'

V. Eysseric

90+6'

G. Villar del Fraile

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ASHellas

Overview

34%Possession66%

20Total Shots7

7Corners6

14Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots7

6On Target1

8Off Target1

6Blocked5

13Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

295Total Passes571

204Accurate Passes474

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls6

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4