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AS Roma vs Genoa — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Genoa
Genoa
Aleksandar Kolarov 49'
Edin Džeko 30'
Cengiz Ünder 6'
Christian Kouamé 70'
Domenico Criscito 43' (pen)
Andrea Pinamonti 16'
8/25/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 1Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma50%
×Draw26%
Genoa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.52
Genoa
0.96

AS Roma creates 58% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 27 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Genoa
1.04

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Genoa
1.47

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
76%
AS Roma or Genoa
74%
Draw or Genoa
50%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
26%
Genoa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
78%
AS Roma 2+ goals
45%
AS Roma 3+ goals
20%
Genoa 1+ goals
62%
Genoa 2+ goals
25%
Genoa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
68%
Genoa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Genoa attack 1.04 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AS Roma scores more
50%
level
26%
Genoa scores more
24%

AS Roma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Edin DžekoAS RomaAS Roma · F
8.7

Match Events

6'
Cengiz Ünder↳ Edin Džeko
16'
Andrea Pinamonti↳ Cristian Romero
30'
Edin Džeko↳ Bryan Cristante
38'
Alessandro Florenzi
42'
Juan Jesus
43'
Domenico CriscitoPenalty
49'
Aleksandar Kolarov
56'
Cristian Romero
66'
Gianluca Mancini← Juan Jesus
70'
Christian Kouamé↳ Paolo Ghiglione
74'
Lorenzo Pellegrini
74'
Javier Pastore← Justin Kluivert
74'
Jawad El Yamiq← Antonio Barreca
78'
Davide Zappacosta← Alessandro Florenzi
86'
Goran Pandev← Andrea Pinamonti
90'
Antonio Sanabria← Christian Kouamé

Possession

53%AS

Shots

23AS

Pass accuracy

51%AS

Statistics

ASGenoa
Overview
53%Possession47%
23Total Shots6
5Corners1
14Fouls15
Shots
23Total Shots6
9On Target4
10Off Target2
4Blocked0
8Inside Box3
15Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
446Total Passes391
380Accurate Passes325
85%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
14Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides6

Serie A: AS Roma 3–3 Genoa

AS Roma and Genoa drew 3-3 in Serie A on August 25, 2019.

Goals: Cengiz Ünder (6'), Andrea Pinamonti (16'), Edin Džeko (30'), Domenico Criscito (43' pen), Aleksandar Kolarov (49'), Christian Kouamé (70').

AS Roma controlled possession (53%) and registered 23 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.