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AS Roma vs Genoa — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Genoa
Genoa
B. Cristante 59'
J. Kluivert 45'
F. Fazio 31'
O. Hiljemark 33'
K. Piątek 17'
12/16/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 16Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma50%
×Draw26%
Genoa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.52
Genoa
0.96

AS Roma creates 58% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 27 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Genoa
1.04

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Genoa
1.47

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
76%
AS Roma or Genoa
74%
Draw or Genoa
50%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
26%
Genoa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
78%
AS Roma 2+ goals
45%
AS Roma 3+ goals
20%
Genoa 1+ goals
62%
Genoa 2+ goals
25%
Genoa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
68%
Genoa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Genoa attack 1.04 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AS Roma scores more
50%
level
26%
Genoa scores more
24%

AS Roma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
J. KluivertAS RomaAS Roma · F
7.7

Match Events

14'
Ervin Zukanović
17'
K. Piątek
31'
F. Fazio
33'
O. Hiljemark↳ Sandro
45'
J. Kluivert↳ A. Kolarov
47'
Nicolò Zaniolo
59'
B. Cristante↳ J. Kluivert
60'
Pedro Pereira← E. Zukanović
65'
E. Rolón← Sandro
68'
G. Pandev← Rômulo
76'
D. Santon← C. Ünder
80'
P. Schick← J. Kluivert
87'
Patrik Schick
90'
Esteban Rolón

Possession

55%AS

Shots

16AS

Pass accuracy

52%AS

Statistics

ASGenoa
Overview
55%Possession45%
16Total Shots15
6Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots15
6On Target9
7Off Target4
3Blocked2
13Inside Box10
3Outside Box5
Passing
55%Possession45%
466Total Passes386
375Accurate Passes287
80%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides9

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Genoa

AS Roma beat Genoa 3-2 in Serie A on December 16, 2018.

Goals: K. Piątek (17'), F. Fazio (31'), O. Hiljemark (33'), J. Kluivert (45'), B. Cristante (59').

AS Roma controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Rome.