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AS Roma vs Fiorentina — Serie A 2026

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
P. Dybala 82', 40'
1/15/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 18Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma50%
×Draw26%
Fiorentina25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.52
Fiorentina
0.99

AS Roma creates 54% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.57
Fiorentina
1.10

allows per match

AS Roma
0.87
Fiorentina
1.47

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more
Fiorentina+0.04on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
75%
AS Roma or Fiorentina
74%
Draw or Fiorentina
50%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
25%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
78%
AS Roma 2+ goals
45%
AS Roma 3+ goals
20%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
63%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
26%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
67%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.47 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fiorentina attack 1.10 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AS Roma scores more
50%
level
26%
Fiorentina scores more
25%

AS Roma at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
P. DybalaAS RomaAS Roma · F
9.2

Match Events

4'
Dodô
15'
Chris Smalling
24'
Dodô
24'
Dodô
29'
L. Venuti← A. Duncan
40'
P. Dybala↳ T. Abraham
46'
A. Barák← L. Jović
46'
N. González← J. Ikoné
55'
Marash Kumbulla
55'
Nicolás González
63'
Edoardo Bove
66'
L. Spinazzola← N. Zalewski
67'
N. Matić← E. Bove
74'
B. Tahirovic← L. Pellegrini
79'
Igor Júlio
82'
P. Dybala↳ T. Abraham
85'
G. Castrovilli← G. Bonaventura
89'
O. Solbakken← T. Abraham
89'
A. Belotti← P. Dybala

Possession

52%AS

Shots

10AS

Pass accuracy

51%AS

Statistics

ASFiorentina
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots7
5Corners9
15Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots7
4On Target3
5Off Target2
1Blocked2
9Inside Box5
1Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
450Total Passes422
396Accurate Passes358
88%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls12
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: AS Roma vs Fiorentina

AS Roma beat Fiorentina 2-0 in Serie A on January 15, 2023.

Goals: P. Dybala (40', 82').

AS Roma controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.