AS Roma 2–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

AS Roma

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fiorentina

7/26/2020

Serie A · Round 36Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

AS Roma49%

×Draw26%

Fiorentina25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS RomaExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.00

AS Roma

1.52

Fiorentina

1.00

AS Roma creates 52% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 33 away

1.57

creates per match

1.12

0.87

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

AS Roma

1.57

Fiorentina

1.12

allows per match

AS Roma

0.87

Fiorentina

1.47

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Roma+0.26scores more

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw

75%

AS Roma or Fiorentina

74%

Draw or Fiorentina

51%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+

25%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals

78%

AS Roma 2+ goals

45%

AS Roma 3+ goals

20%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

63%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

26%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)

66%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.57 + Fiorentina defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fiorentina attack 1.12 + AS Roma defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AS Roma scores more

49%

level

26%

Fiorentina scores more

25%

AS Roma at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff