AS Puma Generalena 2–3 AD Carmelita: Result & Stats

AS Puma Generalena

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

AD Carmelita

3/12/2022

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 13Estadio Municipal de Garabito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AS Puma Generalena39%

×Draw26%

AD Carmelita35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Puma GeneralenaExpected goals in this matchAD Carmelita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.33

AS Puma Generalena

1.41

AD Carmelita

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 104 away

1.28

creates per match

1.31

1.36

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena

1.28

AD Carmelita

1.31

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena

1.36

AD Carmelita

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

AD Carmelita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

AD Carmelita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw

65%

AS Puma Generalena or AD Carmelita

74%

Draw or AD Carmelita

61%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+

18%

AD Carmelita wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals

76%

AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals

41%

AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals

17%

AD Carmelita 1+ goals

74%

AD Carmelita 2+ goals

38%

AD Carmelita 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)

52%

AD Carmelita (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

AD Carmelita away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + AD Carmelita defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

AD Carmelita attack 1.31 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more

39%

level

26%

AD Carmelita scores more

35%

AS Puma Generalena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Puma Generalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AS Puma Generalena 2–3 AD Carmelita

AD Carmelita beat AS Puma Generalena 3-2 in Liga de Ascenso on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Garabito in Garabito.

AS Puma Generalena vs AD Carmelita — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga de Ascenso: AS Puma Generalena 2–3 AD Carmelita