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AS Kigali vs Espoir — National Soccer League 2019

AS Kigali
AS Kigali
CANC
13:00
Espoir
Espoir
2/21/2021National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 12Stade Régional de Nyamirambo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

AS Kigali55%
×Draw26%
Espoir19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Kigali
1.52
Espoir
0.76

AS Kigali creates 100% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 50 away

creates per match

AS Kigali
1.25
Espoir
0.70

allows per match

AS Kigali
0.81
Espoir
1.78

finishing

AS Kigali+0.00on par
Espoir+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Kigali ↓

Espoir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AS Kigali or draw
81%
AS Kigali or Espoir
74%
Draw or Espoir
45%

Winning margin

AS Kigali wins by 2+
29%
Espoir wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AS Kigali 1+ goals
78%
AS Kigali 2+ goals
45%
AS Kigali 3+ goals
20%
Espoir 1+ goals
53%
Espoir 2+ goals
18%
Espoir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Kigali (draw refunded)
75%
Espoir (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Kigali at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 97 matches

Espoir away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Kigali attack 1.25 + Espoir defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Espoir attack 0.70 + AS Kigali defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AS Kigali scores more
55%
level
26%
Espoir scores more
19%

AS Kigali at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AS Kigali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: AS Kigali host Espoir

February 21, 2021: AS Kigali take on Espoir in National Soccer League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

AS Kigali host Espoir at Stade Régional de Nyamirambo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.