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AS Eupen vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2026

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
Luis Garcia 90'
10/31/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 13Kehrweg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

AS Eupen37%
×Draw25%
Cercle Brugge38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.40
Cercle Brugge
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 140 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.19
Cercle Brugge
1.16

allows per match

AS Eupen
1.72
Cercle Brugge
1.61

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
62%
AS Eupen or Cercle Brugge
75%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
63%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
17%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
75%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
41%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
17%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
76%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
42%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
49%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.72 · 97 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cercle Brugge attack 1.16 + AS Eupen defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AS Eupen scores more
37%
level
25%
Cercle Brugge scores more
38%

Cercle Brugge at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Cheick Keita
54'
Serge Gakpé
64'
David Pollet← Yuta Toyokawa
65'
Irvin Cardona← Serge Gakpé
68'
Xavier Mercier
71'
Eric Ocansey← Cheick Keita
72'
Guevin Tormin
74'
Kylian Hazard← Guevin Tormin
85'
Danijel Miličević← Jean Thierry Lazare Amani
86'
Kevin Appin← Arnaud Lusamba
90'
Luis Garcia
90'
Jordan Lotiès

Statistics

ASCercle
Overview
7Corners5
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Jupiler Pro League: AS Eupen 2–0 Cercle Brugge

AS Eupen beat Cercle Brugge 2-0 in Jupiler Pro League on October 31, 2018.

Goals: Luis Garcia (90').

The match was played at Kehrweg Stadium in Eupen.