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AS Eupen vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
Yuta Toyokawa 31'
Luis Garcia 26'
Ivan Santini 78'
10/28/2018Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 12Kehrweg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

AS Eupen31%
×Draw25%
Anderlecht44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.25
Anderlecht
1.56

Anderlecht creates 25% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 152 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.19
Anderlecht
1.39

allows per match

AS Eupen
1.73
Anderlecht
1.32

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
Anderlecht+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
56%
AS Eupen or Anderlecht
75%
Draw or Anderlecht
69%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
13%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
71%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
36%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
13%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
79%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
46%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
41%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.32 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + Anderlecht defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Anderlecht attack 1.39 + AS Eupen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AS Eupen scores more
31%
level
25%
Anderlecht scores more
44%

Anderlecht at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Sven Kums
26'
Luis Garcia
31'
Yuta Toyokawa
54'
Evgeny Makarenko← Sebastiaan Bornauw
55'
Kenny Saief← Adrien Trebel
75'
Eric Ocansey← Mamadou Fall
78'
Ivan Santini
79'
Dauda Mohammed← Pieter Gerkens
80'
Samuel Essende← Yuta Toyokawa
84'
Rocky Bushiri Kiranga
84'
Jordan Lotiès← Jean Thierry Lazare Amani
90'
Jordan Lotiès

Statistics

ASAnderlecht
Overview
4Corners12
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Jupiler Pro League: AS Eupen 2–1 Anderlecht

AS Eupen beat Anderlecht 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on October 28, 2018.

Goals: Luis Garcia (26'), Yuta Toyokawa (31'), Ivan Santini (78').

The match was played at Kehrweg Stadium in Eupen.