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AS Cotonou vs Ayema — Championnat National 2019

AS Cotonou
AS Cotonou
FT
2 – 0
Ayema
Ayema
3/16/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 8Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

AS Cotonou39%
×Draw33%
Ayema28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Cotonou
0.96
Ayema
0.77

AS Cotonou creates 25% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 119 away

creates per match

AS Cotonou
1.12
Ayema
0.88

allows per match

AS Cotonou
0.66
Ayema
0.80

finishing

AS Cotonou+0.00on par
Ayema+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Cotonou ↓

Ayema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

AS Cotonou or draw
72%
AS Cotonou or Ayema
67%
Draw or Ayema
61%

Winning margin

AS Cotonou wins by 2+
14%
Ayema wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AS Cotonou 1+ goals
62%
AS Cotonou 2+ goals
25%
AS Cotonou 3+ goals
7%
Ayema 1+ goals
54%
Ayema 2+ goals
18%
Ayema 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AS Cotonou (draw refunded)
58%
Ayema (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Cotonou at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.66 · 110 matches

Ayema away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Cotonou attack 1.12 + Ayema defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ayema attack 0.88 + AS Cotonou defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Cotonou scores more
39%
level
33%
Ayema scores more
28%

AS Cotonou at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Cotonou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: AS Cotonou 2–0 Ayema

AS Cotonou beat Ayema 2-0 in Championnat National on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stade René Pleven d'Akpakpa in Cotonou.