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Arys vs Aktobe — Cup 2019

Arys
Arys
PST
00:00
Aktobe
Aktobe
3/25/2020CupCup · Group Stage - 3BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Arys39%
×Draw24%
Aktobe37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arys
1.58
Aktobe
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Arys
1.67
Aktobe
1.30

allows per match

Arys
1.75
Aktobe
1.50

finishing

Arys+0.00on par
Aktobe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arys ↓

Aktobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Arys or draw
63%
Arys or Aktobe
76%
Draw or Aktobe
61%

Winning margin

Arys wins by 2+
19%
Aktobe wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Arys 1+ goals
79%
Arys 2+ goals
47%
Arys 3+ goals
21%
Aktobe 1+ goals
78%
Aktobe 2+ goals
45%
Aktobe 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Arys (draw refunded)
52%
Aktobe (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arys at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Aktobe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arys attack 1.67 + Aktobe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Aktobe attack 1.30 + Arys defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arys scores more
39%
level
24%
Aktobe scores more
37%

Arys at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arys vs Aktobe — Match Preview

Arys face Aktobe on March 25, 2020 in this Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Arys host Aktobe at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.