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Arua Hill vs UPDF — Premier League 2019

Arua Hill
Arua Hill
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
UPDF
UPDF
12/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Barifa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arua Hill53%
×Draw25%
UPDF23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arua Hill
1.61
UPDF
0.96

Arua Hill creates 68% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 87 away

creates per match

Arua Hill
1.51
UPDF
0.92

allows per match

Arua Hill
1.00
UPDF
1.71

finishing

Arua Hill+0.00on par
UPDF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arua Hill ↓

UPDF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arua Hill or draw
77%
Arua Hill or UPDF
75%
Draw or UPDF
47%

Winning margin

Arua Hill wins by 2+
28%
UPDF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arua Hill 1+ goals
80%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
48%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
22%
UPDF 1+ goals
62%
UPDF 2+ goals
25%
UPDF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arua Hill (draw refunded)
70%
UPDF (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arua Hill at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

UPDF away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.71 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arua Hill attack 1.51 + UPDF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

UPDF attack 0.92 + Arua Hill defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arua Hill scores more
53%
level
25%
UPDF scores more
23%

Arua Hill at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arua Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arua Hill 2 – 1 UPDF

Arua Hill beat UPDF 2-1 in Premier League on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Barifa Football Stadium in Arua.