Arsenal W 3–0 West Ham W: Result & Stats | FA WSL

Arsenal W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

West Ham W

11/26/2023

FA WSL · Round 8Meadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Arsenal W72%

×Draw16%

West Ham W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal WExpected goals in this matchWest Ham W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

0.90

Arsenal W

2.53

West Ham W

0.90

Arsenal W creates 181% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

2.96

creates per match

1.11

0.69

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Arsenal W

2.96

West Ham W

1.11

allows per match

Arsenal W

0.69

West Ham W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal W+0.00on par

West Ham W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal W ↓

West Ham W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Arsenal W or draw

89%

Arsenal W or West Ham W

84%

Draw or West Ham W

28%

Winning margin

Arsenal W wins by 2+

50%

West Ham W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Arsenal W 1+ goals

92%

Arsenal W 2+ goals

71%

Arsenal W 3+ goals

46%

West Ham W 1+ goals

59%

West Ham W 2+ goals

23%

West Ham W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arsenal W (draw refunded)

86%

West Ham W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal W at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.69 · 83 matches

West Ham W away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal W attack 2.96 + West Ham W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.53

West Ham W attack 1.11 + Arsenal W defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Arsenal W scores more

72%

level

16%

West Ham W scores more

11%

Arsenal W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Arsenal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff