Arsenal 4–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Watford

T. Walcott 90'

Bellerín 48'

A. Iwobi 38'

A. Sánchez 4'

4/2/2016

Premier League · Round 32Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Arsenal60%

×Draw22%

Watford18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.95

Arsenal

1.92

Watford

0.95

Arsenal creates 102% more chances

Season form · 210 home / 112 away

2.05

creates per match

0.96

0.93

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Arsenal

2.05

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Arsenal

0.93

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

82%

Arsenal or Watford

78%

Draw or Watford

40%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

35%

Watford wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

85%

Arsenal 2+ goals

57%

Arsenal 3+ goals

30%

Watford 1+ goals

61%

Watford 2+ goals

25%

Watford 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

77%

Watford (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.93 · 210 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.05 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.92

Watford attack 0.96 + Arsenal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Arsenal scores more

60%

level

22%

Watford scores more

18%

Arsenal at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Sánchez

Arsenal · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

A. Sánchez

38'

A. Iwobi↳ A. Sánchez

41'

I. Anya← E. Capoue

46'

N. Amrabat← O. Ighalo

48'

Bellerín

61'

Allan Nyom

69'

O. Giroud← D. Welbeck

69'

A. Guédioura← A. Abdi

74'

T. Walcott← A. Iwobi

79'

J. Campbell← A. Sánchez

84'

Mohamed Elneny

90'

T. Walcott↳ J. Campbell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalWatford

Overview

69%Possession31%

19Total Shots7

8Corners3

0Fouls0

Shots

19Total Shots7

12On Target3

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

14Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

773Total Passes328

681Accurate Passes233

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3