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Arsenal vs ML Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

Arsenal
Arsenal
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
11/16/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation RoundStadyen Haradzeya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Arsenal20%
×Draw25%
ML Vitebsk55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal
0.84
ML Vitebsk
1.57

ML Vitebsk creates 87% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 24 away

creates per match

Arsenal
0.94
ML Vitebsk
1.92

allows per match

Arsenal
1.23
ML Vitebsk
0.75

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw
45%
Arsenal or ML Vitebsk
75%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
80%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+
6%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals
57%
Arsenal 2+ goals
21%
Arsenal 3+ goals
5%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
79%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
46%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)
27%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 0.94 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + Arsenal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arsenal scores more
20%
level
25%
ML Vitebsk scores more
55%

ML Vitebsk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal vs ML Vitebsk

Arsenal beat ML Vitebsk 3-2 in Premier League on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradzeya in Haradzeya.