Arsenal 3–4 Liverpool: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.23

Arsenal

1.54

Liverpool

1.23

Arsenal creates 25% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

1.76

creates per match

1.62

0.84

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Arsenal

1.76

Liverpool

1.62

allows per match

Arsenal

0.84

Liverpool

1.31

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Arsenal+0.49scores more

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

70%

Arsenal or Liverpool

75%

Draw or Liverpool

56%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

22%

Liverpool wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

79%

Arsenal 2+ goals

45%

Arsenal 3+ goals

20%

Liverpool 1+ goals

71%

Liverpool 2+ goals

35%

Liverpool 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

59%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.84 · 36 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 1.76 + Liverpool defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Liverpool attack 1.62 + Arsenal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arsenal scores more

44%

level

25%

Liverpool scores more

30%

Arsenal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Philippe Coutinho

Liverpool · F

8.4

Match Events

26'

29'

31'

37'

41'

45+1'

49'

A. Lallana↳ G. Wijnaldum

56'

Philippe Coutinho↳ N. Clyne

57'

Alex Iwobi

59'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← A. Iwobi

61'

Santi Cazorla← A. Ramsey

63'

S. Mané↳ A. Lallana

64'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain↳ Santi Cazorla

67'

G. Xhaka← Mohamed Elneny

70'

E. Can← Philippe Coutinho

75'

C. Chambers↳ Santi Cazorla

76'

D. Origi← A. Lallana

86'

Granit Xhaka

88'

K. Stewart← G. Wijnaldum

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalLiverpool

Overview

50%Possession50%

9Total Shots16

5Corners4

13Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots16

5On Target7

3Off Target3

1Blocked6

6Inside Box12

3Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

485Total Passes479

386Accurate Passes380

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3