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Arsenal vs FC Minsk — Premier League 2018

Arsenal
Arsenal
Preview
15:00
FC Minsk
FC Minsk
8/1/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Haradski Stadium
Big match
39%
Arsenal
model favours
39%28%33%

FC Minsk score first in only 28% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Arsenal39%
×Draw28%
FC Minsk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal
1.25
FC Minsk
1.14

Arsenal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 113 away

creates per match

Arsenal
0.94
FC Minsk
1.04

allows per match

Arsenal
1.23
FC Minsk
1.56

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par
FC Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

FC Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw
67%
Arsenal or FC Minsk
72%
Draw or FC Minsk
61%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+
17%
FC Minsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals
71%
Arsenal 2+ goals
36%
Arsenal 3+ goals
13%
FC Minsk 1+ goals
68%
FC Minsk 2+ goals
32%
FC Minsk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)
54%
FC Minsk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

FC Minsk away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.56 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 0.94 + FC Minsk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Minsk attack 1.04 + Arsenal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arsenal scores more
39%
level
28%
FC Minsk scores more
33%

Arsenal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Arsenal score first in only 30% of matches
  • 53% of Arsenal’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Arsenal’s matches
  • 45% of FC Minsk’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Arsenal matches are rarely goalless — only 5% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Arsenal
Balanced
FC Minsk
Balanced
26%PossessionBiggest gap46%
—Pass accuracy—
4.0Shots5.8
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ArsenalFC Minsk

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
Arsenal
5
Draws
2
FC Minsk
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 67%
3–11–11–12–20–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Arsenal
DLWDW
Minsk
WWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arsenal host FC Minsk

August 1, 2026: Arsenal take on FC Minsk in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Arsenal host FC Minsk at Haradski Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.