Arsenal 2–3 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.02

Arsenal

1.51

Crystal Palace

1.02

Arsenal creates 48% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

1.76

creates per match

1.21

0.84

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Arsenal

1.76

Crystal Palace

1.21

allows per match

Arsenal

0.84

Crystal Palace

1.26

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Arsenal+0.49scores more

Crystal Palace-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

74%

Arsenal or Crystal Palace

74%

Draw or Crystal Palace

51%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

25%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

78%

Arsenal 2+ goals

44%

Arsenal 3+ goals

19%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

64%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

27%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

65%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.84 · 36 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 1.76 + Crystal Palace defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.51

Crystal Palace attack 1.21 + Arsenal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arsenal scores more

49%

level

26%

Crystal Palace scores more

26%

Arsenal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Benteke

Crystal Palace · F

8.1

Match Events

16'

Konstantinos Mavropanos

17'

C. Benteke↳ L. Milivojević

46'

A. Iwobi← K. Mavropanos

46'

A. Maitland-Niles← C. Jenkinson

47'

M. Özil↳ A. Lacazette

61'

W. Zaha↳ C. Benteke

63'

Mesut Özil

68'

Mattéo Guendouzi

68'

L. Torreira← Mohamed Elneny

69'

J. McArthur↳ S. Dann

77'

P. Aubameyang

78'

J. Ayew← C. Benteke

80'

A. Townsend← M. Meyer

81'

Joel Ward

85'

Shkodran Mustafi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalCrystal

Overview

72%Possession28%

12Total Shots16

8Corners3

15Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots16

5On Target7

5Off Target5

2Blocked4

8Inside Box14

4Outside Box2

Passing

72%Possession28%

656Total Passes249

583Accurate Passes169

89%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2