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Arsenal vs Como — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Arsenal
Arsenal
Preview
18:30
Como
Como
8/12/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club FriendliesEmirates Stadium
49%
Arsenal
model favours
49%22%29%

When Arsenal score first, they win 91% of the time

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Arsenal49%
×Draw22%
Como29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal
2.00
Como
1.50

Arsenal creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Arsenal
2.33
Como
1.67

allows per match

Arsenal
1.33
Como
1.67

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par
Como+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Como →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw
71%
Arsenal or Como
78%
Draw or Como
51%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+
28%
Como wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals
86%
Arsenal 2+ goals
59%
Arsenal 3+ goals
32%
Como 1+ goals
78%
Como 2+ goals
44%
Como 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)
63%
Como (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Como away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.33 + Como defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Como attack 1.67 + Arsenal defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arsenal scores more
49%
level
22%
Como scores more
29%

Arsenal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Arsenal are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Como have won 3 in a row
  • Como are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Arsenal score first in 64% of matches
  • Arsenal win 77% of their home games
  • Arsenal and Como have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Arsenal
DWWWW
Como
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arsenal vs Como — Match Preview

Arsenal face Como on August 12, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Arsenal host Como at Emirates Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.