Arsenal 2–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Aston Villa

Gabriel Martinelli 77'

Gabriel Jesus 30'

Douglas Luiz 74'

8/31/2022

Premier League · Round 5Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Arsenal55%

×Draw24%

Aston Villa21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.96

Arsenal

1.71

Aston Villa

0.96

Arsenal creates 78% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

1.74

creates per match

1.13

0.80

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Arsenal

1.74

Aston Villa

1.13

allows per match

Arsenal

0.80

Aston Villa

1.67

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.52scores more

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

79%

Arsenal or Aston Villa

76%

Draw or Aston Villa

45%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

30%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

82%

Arsenal 2+ goals

51%

Arsenal 3+ goals

24%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

62%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

25%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

72%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.80 · 34 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.67 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 1.74 + Aston Villa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Aston Villa attack 1.13 + Arsenal defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arsenal scores more

55%

level

24%

Aston Villa scores more

21%

Arsenal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Gabriel Martinelli

Arsenal · F

8.0

Match Events

13'

30'

39'

48'

54'

65'

T. Tomiyasu← B. White

68'

John McGinn

73'

Douglas Luiz← J. McGinn

73'

Philippe Coutinho← E. Buendía

74'

Douglas Luiz

75'

Douglas LuizGoal confirmed

77'

Gabriel Martinelli↳ B. Saka

81'

E. Smith Rowe← M. Ødegaard

83'

D. Ings← B. Kamara

88'

R. Holding← B. Saka

88'

E. Nketiah← Gabriel Jesus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalAston

Overview

59%Possession41%

22Total Shots4

10Corners3

10Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots4

9On Target3

6Off Target1

7Blocked0

14Inside Box3

8Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

504Total Passes352

428Accurate Passes271

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1