Arsenal 3–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aston Villa

P. Aubameyang 84'

C. Chambers 81'

N. Pépé 59' (pen)

Wesley 60'

J. McGinn 20'

9/22/2019

Premier League · Round 6Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Arsenal54%

×Draw24%

Aston Villa22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.99

Arsenal

1.70

Aston Villa

0.99

Arsenal creates 72% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 32 away

1.76

creates per match

1.14

0.84

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Arsenal

1.76

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Arsenal

0.84

Aston Villa

1.64

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.49scores more

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

78%

Arsenal or Aston Villa

76%

Draw or Aston Villa

46%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

30%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

82%

Arsenal 2+ goals

51%

Arsenal 3+ goals

24%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

63%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

26%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

71%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.84 · 36 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 1.76 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.70

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Arsenal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arsenal scores more

54%

level

24%

Aston Villa scores more

22%

Arsenal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. McGinn

Aston Villa · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

Ainsley Maitland-Niles

20'

J. McGinn↳ A. El Ghazi

35'

Granit Xhaka

41'

Ainsley Maitland-Niles

41'

Ainsley Maitland-Niles

44'

Mattéo Guendouzi

46'

C. Chambers← B. Saka

59'

N. PépéPenalty

60'

Wesley↳ J. Grealish

68'

Ahmed El Mohamady← Trézéguet

72'

J. Willock← G. Xhaka

72'

L. Torreira← Dani Ceballos

81'

83'

84'

85'

85'

C. Hourihane← M. Nakamba

86'

H. Lansbury← A. El Ghazi

90'

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

90'

Bernd Leno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalAston

Overview

58%Possession42%

21Total Shots14

9Corners4

13Fouls15

Shots

21Total Shots14

6On Target9

10Off Target3

5Blocked2

14Inside Box8

7Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

465Total Passes326

396Accurate Passes265

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

7Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0