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Arsenal Tula vs Volga Ulyanovsk — First League 2024

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
Preview
15:00
Volga Ulyanovsk
Volga Ulyanovsk
5/1/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Stadion Arsenal
Big match
43%
Arsenal Tula
model favours
43%29%28%

Volga Ulyanovsk score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Arsenal Tula43%
×Draw29%
Volga Ulyanovsk28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.20
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.91

Arsenal Tula creates 32% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 24 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.07
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.96

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.86
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.33

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
72%
Arsenal Tula or Volga Ulyanovsk
71%
Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk
57%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
19%
Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
70%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
34%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
12%
Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals
60%
Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals
23%
Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
60%
Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.07 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.96 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
43%
level
29%
Volga Ulyanovsk scores more
28%

Arsenal Tula at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 64% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tula
WDDD
Ulyanovsk
LWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arsenal Tula face Volga Ulyanovsk (First League)

First League returns with Arsenal Tula hosting Volga Ulyanovsk. Match starts May 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arsenal Tula host Volga Ulyanovsk at Stadion Arsenal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.