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Arsenal Tula vs Ska-khabarovsk — First League 2024

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
Preview
15:00
Ska-khabarovsk
Ska-khabarovsk
9/12/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Stadion Arsenal
Big match
44%
Arsenal Tula
model favours
44%29%27%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Arsenal Tula44%
×Draw29%
Ska-khabarovsk27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.26
Ska-khabarovsk
0.91

Arsenal Tula creates 38% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 44 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.07
Ska-khabarovsk
0.93

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
1.45

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Ska-khabarovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Ska-khabarovsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
73%
Arsenal Tula or Ska-khabarovsk
71%
Draw or Ska-khabarovsk
56%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
20%
Ska-khabarovsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
72%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
36%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
13%
Ska-khabarovsk 1+ goals
60%
Ska-khabarovsk 2+ goals
23%
Ska-khabarovsk 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
62%
Ska-khabarovsk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.88 · 41 matches

Ska-khabarovsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.45 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.07 + Ska-khabarovsk defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.93 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
44%
level
29%
Ska-khabarovsk scores more
27%

Arsenal Tula at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Arsenal Tula have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Arsenal Tula sit 5, Ska-khabarovsk 17 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tula
WDDD
Ska-khabarovsk
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arsenal Tula face Ska-khabarovsk (First League)

First League returns with Arsenal Tula hosting Ska-khabarovsk. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arsenal Tula host Ska-khabarovsk at Stadion Arsenal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.