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Arsenal Tula vs KAMAZ — First League 2024

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
Preview
15:00
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
10/24/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Arsenal
Big match
41%
Arsenal Tula
model favours
41%31%28%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arsenal Tula41%
×Draw31%
KAMAZ28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.09
KAMAZ
0.86

Arsenal Tula creates 27% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 40 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.05
KAMAZ
0.78

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.95
KAMAZ
1.13

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
72%
Arsenal Tula or KAMAZ
69%
Draw or KAMAZ
59%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
17%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
66%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
30%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
10%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
58%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
21%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
59%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.05 + KAMAZ defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

KAMAZ attack 0.78 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
41%
level
31%
KAMAZ scores more
28%

Arsenal Tula at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Arsenal Tula sit 5, KAMAZ 16 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tula
WDDD
KAMAZ
LDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arsenal Tula face KAMAZ (First League)

First League returns with Arsenal Tula hosting KAMAZ. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arsenal Tula host KAMAZ at Stadion Arsenal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.