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Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk — First League 2024

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
Preview
16:00
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
11/7/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Stadion Arsenal
43%
Arsenal Tula
model favours
43%30%26%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arsenal Tula43%
×Draw30%
Chelyabinsk26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.17
Chelyabinsk
0.84

Arsenal Tula creates 39% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 17 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.10
Chelyabinsk
0.76

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.92
Chelyabinsk
1.24

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
74%
Arsenal Tula or Chelyabinsk
70%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
57%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
19%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
69%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
33%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
11%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
57%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
21%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
62%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.10 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chelyabinsk attack 0.76 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
43%
level
30%
Chelyabinsk scores more
26%

Arsenal Tula at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 3 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tula
WDDD
Chelyabinsk
WDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arsenal Tula face Chelyabinsk (First League)

First League returns with Arsenal Tula hosting Chelyabinsk. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arsenal Tula host Chelyabinsk at Stadion Arsenal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.