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Arsenal Tula U20 vs Krylya Sovetov U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Arsenal Tula U20
Arsenal Tula U20
PST
11:00
Krylya Sovetov U20
Krylya Sovetov U20
4/25/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2039%
×Draw21%
Krylya Sovetov U2040%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula U20
1.95
Krylya Sovetov U20
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 11 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20
2.08
Krylya Sovetov U20
2.27

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20
1.64
Krylya Sovetov U20
1.82

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov U20+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

Krylya Sovetov U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw
60%
Arsenal Tula U20 or Krylya Sovetov U20
79%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov U20
61%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+
21%
Krylya Sovetov U20 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals
86%
Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals
58%
Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals
31%
Krylya Sovetov U20 1+ goals
86%
Krylya Sovetov U20 2+ goals
58%
Krylya Sovetov U20 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Krylya Sovetov U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Krylya Sovetov U20 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + Krylya Sovetov U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.95

Krylya Sovetov U20 attack 2.27 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more
39%
level
21%
Krylya Sovetov U20 scores more
40%

Krylya Sovetov U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arsenal Tula U20 host Krylya Sovetov U20

April 25, 2020: Arsenal Tula U20 take on Krylya Sovetov U20 in Youth Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.