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Arsenal Tivat vs Jezero — First League 2019

Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Jezero
Jezero
2/17/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Stadion u Parku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Arsenal Tivat40%
×Draw29%
Jezero31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tivat
1.20
Jezero
1.02

Arsenal Tivat creates 18% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 111 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tivat
1.14
Jezero
0.91

allows per match

Arsenal Tivat
1.14
Jezero
1.26

finishing

Arsenal Tivat+0.00on par
Jezero+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tivat ↓

Jezero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arsenal Tivat or draw
69%
Arsenal Tivat or Jezero
71%
Draw or Jezero
60%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tivat wins by 2+
17%
Jezero wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arsenal Tivat 1+ goals
70%
Arsenal Tivat 2+ goals
34%
Arsenal Tivat 3+ goals
12%
Jezero 1+ goals
64%
Jezero 2+ goals
27%
Jezero 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tivat (draw refunded)
56%
Jezero (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tivat at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 74 matches

Jezero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.26 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tivat attack 1.14 + Jezero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jezero attack 0.91 + Arsenal Tivat defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arsenal Tivat scores more
40%
level
29%
Jezero scores more
31%

Arsenal Tivat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arsenal Tivat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Arsenal Tivat 3–1 Jezero

Arsenal Tivat beat Jezero 3-1 in First League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion u Parku in Tivat.