Arosa 1–0 UD Ourense: Result & Stats

Arosa

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UD Ourense

Santi Figueroa 18'

12/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Campo Municipal de Vilaxoán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Arosa46%

×Draw28%

UD Ourense26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArosaExpected goals in this matchUD Ourense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.91

Arosa

1.32

UD Ourense

0.91

Arosa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 79 away

1.51

creates per match

0.97

0.84

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Arosa

1.51

UD Ourense

0.97

allows per match

Arosa

0.84

UD Ourense

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arosa+0.00on par

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arosa ↓

UD Ourense →

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arosa or draw

74%

Arosa or UD Ourense

72%

Draw or UD Ourense

54%

Winning margin

Arosa wins by 2+

21%

UD Ourense wins by 2+

Team goals

Arosa 1+ goals

73%

Arosa 2+ goals

38%

Arosa 3+ goals

15%

UD Ourense 1+ goals

60%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

23%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arosa (draw refunded)

64%

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arosa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.84 · 93 matches

UD Ourense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arosa attack 1.51 + UD Ourense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

UD Ourense attack 0.97 + Arosa defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arosa scores more

46%

level

28%

UD Ourense scores more

26%

Arosa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Santi Figueroa

46'

David Rojo← Luismi Rincón

46'

Pablo Parrilla← Álex Rey

58'

Marcos Mella← Martín Diz

70'

Javier Pereira← Antón Concheiro

70'

Jesús Ares← Alberto Novoa

80'

Santi de Prado← Samuel Rodriguez

86'

Arosa

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Luisito

58'▲Marcos Mella←▼Martín Diz

70'▲Javier Pereira←▼Antón Concheiro

86'▲Rubo Blanco←▼Borjita

Arosa substitutes

MellaPereiraBlanco

Manager: Jorge de Dios

46'▲David Rojo←▼Luismi Rincón

46'▲Pablo Parrilla←▼Álex Rey

70'▲Jesús Ares←▼Alberto Novoa

80'▲Santi de Prado←▼Samuel Rodriguez

UD Ourense substitutes

RojoParrillaAresPrado

Match Recap: Arosa vs UD Ourense

Arosa beat UD Ourense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 2, 2023.

Goals: Santi Figueroa (18').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Vilaxoán in Pontevedra.

Arosa vs UD Ourense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Arosa vs UD Ourense