Arnedo 7–1 Villegas: Result & Stats

Arnedo

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Villegas

9/15/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Arnedo76%

×Draw15%

Villegas8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArnedoExpected goals in this matchVillegas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.69

Arnedo

2.48

Villegas

0.69

Arnedo creates 259% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 46 away

1.92

creates per match

0.57

0.81

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Arnedo

1.92

Villegas

0.57

allows per match

Arnedo

0.81

Villegas

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par

Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

Villegas →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw

92%

Arnedo or Villegas

85%

Draw or Villegas

24%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+

54%

Villegas wins by 2+

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals

92%

Arnedo 2+ goals

70%

Arnedo 3+ goals

44%

Villegas 1+ goals

50%

Villegas 2+ goals

15%

Villegas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)

90%

Villegas (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.48

Villegas attack 0.57 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Arnedo scores more

76%

level

15%

Villegas scores more

Arnedo at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff