Arnedo 3–1 Haro Deportivo: Result & Stats

Arnedo

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Haro Deportivo

Miguel Angel 89'

Isaac Manjón 26'

Iván Pascual 14'

Zunzu 67' (pen)

1/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 17Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Arnedo58%

×Draw23%

Haro Deportivo19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArnedoExpected goals in this matchHaro Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.88

Arnedo

1.76

Haro Deportivo

0.88

Arnedo creates 100% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 81 away

1.92

creates per match

0.94

0.81

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Arnedo

1.92

Haro Deportivo

0.94

allows per match

Arnedo

0.81

Haro Deportivo

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

Haro Deportivo →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw

81%

Arnedo or Haro Deportivo

77%

Draw or Haro Deportivo

42%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+

33%

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals

83%

Arnedo 2+ goals

52%

Arnedo 3+ goals

26%

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals

59%

Haro Deportivo 2+ goals

22%

Haro Deportivo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)

76%

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.76

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Arnedo scores more

58%

level

23%

Haro Deportivo scores more

19%

Arnedo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Iván Pascual

26'

Isaac Manjón

46'

Sergio Argaiz← David Sevilla

46'

Oscar del Campo← Jon Pacheco

56'

E. Moisés← Xabier Hidalgo

61'

Marco Clavijo← Alfonso Corbacho

61'

Diego Ruiz← Iván Pascual

66'

Álvaro Marcos← Gonzalo Aguilló

67'

ZunzuPenalty

73'

Ander Santurde← Gaizka Pérez

88'

Miguel Angel← Isaac Manjón

89'

Miguel Angel

Arnedo

Haro

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Arpón

46'▲Sergio Argaiz←▼David Sevilla

61'▲Marco Clavijo←▼Alfonso Corbacho

61'▲Diego Ruiz←▼Iván Pascual

88'▲Miguel Angel←▼Isaac Manjón

Arnedo substitutes

ArgaizClavijoRuizAngel

Manager: Gonzalo Sánchez

46'▲Oscar del Campo←▼Jon Pacheco

56'▲E. Moisés←▼Xabier Hidalgo

66'▲Álvaro Marcos←▼Gonzalo Aguilló

73'▲Ander Santurde←▼Gaizka Pérez

Haro Deportivo substitutes

CampoMoisésMarcosSanturde

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Arnedo 3–1 Haro Deportivo

Arnedo beat Haro Deportivo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 21, 2024.

Goals: Iván Pascual (14'), Isaac Manjón (26'), Zunzu (67' pen), Miguel Angel (89').

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.

Arnedo vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Arnedo 3–1 Haro Deportivo