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Arnedo vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Arnedo
Arnedo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Berceo
Berceo
3/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 28Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Arnedo54%
×Draw24%
Berceo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnedo
1.75
Berceo
1.03

Arnedo creates 70% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 111 away

creates per match

Arnedo
1.92
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

Arnedo
0.81
Berceo
1.59

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw
78%
Arnedo or Berceo
76%
Draw or Berceo
46%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+
30%
Berceo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals
83%
Arnedo 2+ goals
52%
Arnedo 3+ goals
25%
Berceo 1+ goals
64%
Berceo 2+ goals
28%
Berceo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)
71%
Berceo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.75

Berceo attack 1.25 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arnedo scores more
54%
level
24%
Berceo scores more
22%

Arnedo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arnedo 3 – 1 Berceo

Arnedo beat Berceo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.