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Arna-Bjørnar W vs Frigg Oslo FK W — 1. Division Women 2022

Arna-Bjørnar W
Arna-Bjørnar W
Preview
11:30
Frigg Oslo FK W
Frigg Oslo FK W
9/20/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 18
75%
Arna-Bjørnar W
model favours
75%16%9%
2–0
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Arna-Bjørnar W75%
×Draw16%
Frigg Oslo FK W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arna-Bjørnar W
2.37
Frigg Oslo FK W
0.69

Arna-Bjørnar W creates 243% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Arna-Bjørnar W
2.06
Frigg Oslo FK W
0.00

allows per match

Arna-Bjørnar W
1.38
Frigg Oslo FK W
2.67

finishing

Arna-Bjørnar W+0.00on par
Frigg Oslo FK W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arna-Bjørnar W ↓

Frigg Oslo FK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Arna-Bjørnar W or draw
91%
Arna-Bjørnar W or Frigg Oslo FK W
84%
Draw or Frigg Oslo FK W
25%

Winning margin

Arna-Bjørnar W wins by 2+
51%
Frigg Oslo FK W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Arna-Bjørnar W 1+ goals
91%
Arna-Bjørnar W 2+ goals
68%
Arna-Bjørnar W 3+ goals
42%
Frigg Oslo FK W 1+ goals
50%
Frigg Oslo FK W 2+ goals
15%
Frigg Oslo FK W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arna-Bjørnar W (draw refunded)
89%
Frigg Oslo FK W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arna-Bjørnar W at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Frigg Oslo FK W away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arna-Bjørnar W attack 2.06 + Frigg Oslo FK W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.37

Frigg Oslo FK W attack 0.00 + Arna-Bjørnar W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Arna-Bjørnar W scores more
75%
level
16%
Frigg Oslo FK W scores more
9%

Arna-Bjørnar W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Arna-Bjørnar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LWWLD
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arna-Bjørnar W host Frigg Oslo FK W

September 20, 2026: Arna-Bjørnar W take on Frigg Oslo FK W in 1. Division Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.