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Armenia vs Kuwait — Friendlies 2026

Armenia
Armenia
PST
00:00
Kuwait
Kuwait
11/11/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Armenia52%
×Draw28%
Kuwait20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armenia
1.37
Kuwait
0.74

Armenia creates 85% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Armenia
0.82
Kuwait
0.58

allows per match

Armenia
0.91
Kuwait
1.92

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par
Kuwait+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Kuwait →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Armenia or draw
80%
Armenia or Kuwait
72%
Draw or Kuwait
48%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+
25%
Kuwait wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals
75%
Armenia 2+ goals
40%
Armenia 3+ goals
16%
Kuwait 1+ goals
52%
Kuwait 2+ goals
17%
Kuwait 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)
72%
Kuwait (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Kuwait away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 0.82 + Kuwait defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.37

Kuwait attack 0.58 + Armenia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Armenia scores more
52%
level
28%
Kuwait scores more
20%

Armenia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Armenia host Kuwait

November 11, 2020: Armenia take on Kuwait in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Armenia host Kuwait at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.