Armagh City vs Queen's University

Armagh City

Preview

14:00

Queen's University

8/8/2026

League #407 · Round 1

51%

Queen's University

model favours

27%22%51%

80% of Armagh City’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

63%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Armagh City27%

×Draw22%

Queen's University51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Armagh CityExpected goals in this matchQueen's University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.92

Armagh City

1.34

Queen's University

1.92

Queen's University creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.68

creates per match

1.25

2.58

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Armagh City

1.68

Queen's University

1.25

allows per match

Armagh City

2.58

Queen's University

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par

Queen's University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Queen's University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw

49%

Armagh City or Queen's University

78%

Draw or Queen's University

73%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+

11%

Queen's University wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals

74%

Armagh City 2+ goals

39%

Armagh City 3+ goals

15%

Queen's University 1+ goals

85%

Queen's University 2+ goals

57%

Queen's University 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)

35%

Queen's University (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

Queen's University away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.68 + Queen's University defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Queen's University attack 1.25 + Armagh City defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Armagh City scores more

27%

level

22%

Queen's University scores more

51%

Queen's University at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Queen's University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Armagh City and Queen's University have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

City

LLDLL

University

LDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff