Arles 1–1 Nancy: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Arles

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nancy

F. Dja Djedjé 8'

Y. Hadji 26'

12/4/2010

Ligue 1 · Round 16Parc des Sports (Avignon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arles33%

×Draw28%

Nancy39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlesExpected goals in this matchNancy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.23

Arles

1.10

Nancy

1.23

Nancy creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

0.74

creates per match

0.83

1.63

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Arles

0.74

Nancy

0.83

allows per match

Arles

1.63

Nancy

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arles+0.00on par

Nancy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Nancy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arles or draw

61%

Arles or Nancy

72%

Draw or Nancy

67%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+

13%

Nancy wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals

67%

Arles 2+ goals

30%

Arles 3+ goals

10%

Nancy 1+ goals

71%

Nancy 2+ goals

35%

Nancy 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)

46%

Nancy (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Nancy away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 0.74 + Nancy defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nancy attack 0.83 + Arles defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arles scores more

33%

level

28%

Nancy scores more

39%

Nancy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nancy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

F. Dja Djedjé↳ C. Meriem

26'

Y. Hadji↳ B. Gavanon

46'

Y. Kermorgant← F. Dja Djedjé

58'

D. N'Diaye← E. Erbate

60'

P. Berenguer← B. Gavanon

79'

R. Cabella← K. Diawara

79'

J. Loties← B. Traoré

83'

P. Alo'o Efoulou← M. Vahirua

Arles

Nancy

16

Gregorini

5

Luiz

23

Brison

24

A

▼

Gavanon

7

N'Guémo

12

▼

22

29

21

19

▼

Vahirua

15

⚽

16

2

15

4

▼

5

23

13

28

A

Meriem

6

Aït-Ben-I

29

⚽

▼

Djedjé

19

▼

Diawara

46'▲Y. Kermorgant←▼F. Dja Djedjé

58'▲D. N'Diaye←▼E. Erbate

79'▲R. Cabella←▼K. Diawara

Arles substitutes

18Kermorgant27N'Diaye20Cabella3Pavón22Germany1Planté

60'▲P. Berenguer←▼B. Gavanon

79'▲J. Loties←▼B. Traoré

83'▲P. Alo'o Efoulou←▼M. Vahirua

Nancy substitutes

6Berenguer8Loties14Efoulou9Chahechouhe4Rachid1Bracigliano3Sami

Ligue 1: Arles 1–1 Nancy

Arles and Nancy drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on December 4, 2010.

Goals: F. Dja Djedjé (8'), Y. Hadji (26').

The match was played at Parc des Sports (Avignon).

Arles vs Nancy — Ligue 1 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 1: Arles 1–1 Nancy