Arles 0–0 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Arles

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chateauroux

12/2/2011

Ligue 2 · Round 16Parc des Sports (Avignon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Arles45%

×Draw29%

Chateauroux26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlesExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.90

Arles

1.27

Chateauroux

0.90

Arles creates 41% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 157 away

1.03

creates per match

0.79

1.01

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Arles

1.03

Chateauroux

0.79

allows per match

Arles

1.01

Chateauroux

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arles+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arles or draw

74%

Arles or Chateauroux

71%

Draw or Chateauroux

55%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+

20%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals

72%

Arles 2+ goals

36%

Arles 3+ goals

14%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

59%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

23%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)

63%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.51 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 1.03 + Chateauroux defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chateauroux attack 0.79 + Arles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arles scores more

45%

level

29%

Chateauroux scores more

26%

Arles at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

C. Beauvue← T. Moulin

67'

J. Aït-Ben-Idir← D. Gigliotti

76'

M. Bourgeois← R. Grange

82'

A. Orinel← J. Mandrichi

89'

T. Savagnier← C. Najih

Arles

Chateauroux

1

13

6

3

8

7

29

▼

Grange

15

Baby

10

▼

Mandrichi

21

▼

5

1

4

3

5

12

27

7

17

9

10

▼

Gigliotti

14

▼

Najih

67'▲J. Aït-Ben-Idir←▼D. Gigliotti

89'▲T. Savagnier←▼C. Najih

Arles substitutes

6Aït-Ben-Idir25Savagnier30Yattara15Laurenti18Rodriguez

66'▲C. Beauvue←▼T. Moulin

76'▲M. Bourgeois←▼R. Grange

82'▲A. Orinel←▼J. Mandrichi

Chateauroux substitutes

19Beauvue22Bourgeois20Orinel16Carradec24Inez

Ligue 2: Arles 0–0 Chateauroux

Arles and Chateauroux drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on December 2, 2011.

The match was played at Parc des Sports (Avignon).

Arles vs Chateauroux — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 2: Arles 0–0 Chateauroux