Arkadag 3–0 Altyn Asyr: Result & Stats

Arkadag

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Altyn Asyr

3/7/2024

Ýokary Liga · Round 2Sport toplumy stadiony Büzmeýin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Arkadag66%

×Draw17%

Altyn Asyr16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArkadagExpected goals in this matchAltyn Asyr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.23

Arkadag

2.60

Altyn Asyr

1.23

Arkadag creates 111% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 83 away

4.29

creates per match

1.80

0.65

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Arkadag

4.29

Altyn Asyr

1.80

allows per match

Arkadag

0.65

Altyn Asyr

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arkadag+0.00on par

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arkadag ↓

Altyn Asyr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Arkadag or draw

84%

Arkadag or Altyn Asyr

83%

Draw or Altyn Asyr

34%

Winning margin

Arkadag wins by 2+

45%

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Arkadag 1+ goals

92%

Arkadag 2+ goals

73%

Arkadag 3+ goals

47%

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals

71%

Altyn Asyr 2+ goals

35%

Altyn Asyr 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Arkadag (draw refunded)

80%

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arkadag at home — creates 4.29, concedes 0.65 · 49 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arkadag attack 4.29 + Altyn Asyr defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 2.60

Altyn Asyr attack 1.80 + Arkadag defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Arkadag scores more

66%

level

17%

Altyn Asyr scores more

16%

Arkadag at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Arkadag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff