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Arka Gdynia vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2025

Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
Preview
15:00
Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
5/1/2027I LigaI Liga · Round 30Stadion Miejski w Gdyni
Big match
51%
Arka Gdynia
model favours
51%26%24%

Arka Gdynia score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Arka Gdynia51%
×Draw26%
Chrobry Głogów24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia
1.54
Chrobry Głogów
0.97

Arka Gdynia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia
1.57
Chrobry Głogów
1.00

allows per match

Arka Gdynia
0.93
Chrobry Głogów
1.50

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Chrobry Głogów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw
76%
Arka Gdynia or Chrobry Głogów
74%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
49%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
26%
Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
79%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
45%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
20%
Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
62%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
25%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
68%
Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.57 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.00 + Arka Gdynia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more
51%
level
26%
Chrobry Głogów scores more
24%

Arka Gdynia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches
  • Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
  • 83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (63% and 83% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gdynia
LWLL
Głogów
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arka Gdynia vs Chrobry Głogów — Match Preview

Arka Gdynia face Chrobry Głogów on May 1, 2027 in this I Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Arka Gdynia host Chrobry Głogów at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.