Aris 2–0 Omonia Nicosia: Result & Stats

Aris

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Omonia Nicosia

1/7/2024

1. Division · Round 18Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Aris43%

×Draw26%

Omonia Nicosia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArisExpected goals in this matchOmonia Nicosia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.20

Aris

1.45

Omonia Nicosia

1.20

Aris creates 21% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 118 away

1.80

creates per match

1.57

0.83

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Aris

1.80

Omonia Nicosia

1.57

allows per match

Aris

0.83

Omonia Nicosia

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aris+0.00on par

Omonia Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aris ↓

Omonia Nicosia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Aris or draw

69%

Aris or Omonia Nicosia

74%

Draw or Omonia Nicosia

57%

Winning margin

Aris wins by 2+

21%

Omonia Nicosia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aris 1+ goals

77%

Aris 2+ goals

42%

Aris 3+ goals

18%

Omonia Nicosia 1+ goals

70%

Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals

34%

Omonia Nicosia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aris (draw refunded)

58%

Omonia Nicosia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aris at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.83 · 88 matches

Omonia Nicosia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aris attack 1.80 + Omonia Nicosia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Omonia Nicosia attack 1.57 + Aris defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aris scores more

43%

level

26%

Omonia Nicosia scores more

31%

Aris at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff