Ariana 1–0 Jendouba Sport: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Ariana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jendouba Sport

12/27/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade Municipal d'Ariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ariana47%

×Draw29%

Jendouba Sport24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArianaExpected goals in this matchJendouba Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.80

Ariana

1.26

Jendouba Sport

0.80

Ariana creates 57% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 59 away

1.42

creates per match

0.86

0.74

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Ariana

1.42

Jendouba Sport

0.86

allows per match

Ariana

0.74

Jendouba Sport

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Jendouba Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ariana or draw

76%

Ariana or Jendouba Sport

71%

Draw or Jendouba Sport

53%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+

22%

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals

72%

Ariana 2+ goals

36%

Ariana 3+ goals

13%

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals

55%

Jendouba Sport 2+ goals

19%

Jendouba Sport 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)

67%

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.42 + Jendouba Sport defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Jendouba Sport attack 0.86 + Ariana defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ariana scores more

47%

level

29%

Jendouba Sport scores more

24%

Ariana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff