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Argentinos JRS vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Platense
Platense
L. Heredia 90+4'
6/3/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 19Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Argentinos JRS47%
×Draw31%
Platense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentinos JRS
1.17
Platense
0.70

Argentinos JRS creates 67% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

creates per match

Argentinos JRS
1.14
Platense
0.73

allows per match

Argentinos JRS
0.66
Platense
1.21

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.15scores more
Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw
78%
Argentinos JRS or Platense
69%
Draw or Platense
53%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
21%
Platense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
69%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
33%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
11%
Platense 1+ goals
50%
Platense 2+ goals
16%
Platense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
68%
Platense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.66 · 14 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 1.14 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Platense attack 0.73 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more
47%
level
31%
Platense scores more
22%

Argentinos JRS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
K. Mac AllisterArgentinos JRSArgentinos JRS · D
7.7

Match Events

9'
M. Jacquet
20'
G. Asis
47'
T. Nuss
56'
R. Martinez
64'
F. Domínguez← G. Verón
64'
F. Baldassarra← I. Schor
64'
I. Vázquez← G. Asís
70'
L. Heredia← J. Herrera
71'
K. Mac Allister
75'
F. Díaz← V. Taborda
75'
N. Zeineddin← N. Servetto
82'
M. Torren
86'
M. Pellegrino
87'
J. Infante← M. Pellegrino
90'
N. Zeineddin
90+3'
F. Diaz
90+3'
S. Montiel
90+5'
S. Montiel
90+6'
L. Heredia
90+7'
L. González← T. Nuss
90+4'
L. Heredia

Possession

63%Argentinos

Shots

22Argentinos

Pass accuracy

56%Argentinos

Statistics

ArgentinosPlatense
Overview
63%Possession37%
22Total Shots7
13Corners2
11Fouls14
Shots
22Total Shots7
4On Target2
9Off Target2
9Blocked3
17Inside Box6
5Outside Box1
Passing
63%Possession37%
324Total Passes202
228Accurate Passes110
70%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls14
5Yellow Cards6
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Argentinos JRS 1–0 Platense

Argentinos JRS beat Platense 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 3, 2023.

Goals: L. Heredia (90+4').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.