Argentinos JRS 0–2 Platense: Result & Stats

Argentinos JRS

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Platense

A. Costa 54'

N. Morgantini 42'

8/27/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Argentinos JRS47%

×Draw31%

Platense22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentinos JRSExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.70

Argentinos JRS

1.17

Platense

0.70

Argentinos JRS creates 67% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

1.14

creates per match

0.73

0.66

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Argentinos JRS

1.14

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Argentinos JRS

0.66

Platense

1.21

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.15scores more

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw

78%

Argentinos JRS or Platense

69%

Draw or Platense

53%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

21%

Platense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

69%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

33%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

11%

Platense 1+ goals

50%

Platense 2+ goals

16%

Platense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

68%

Platense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.66 · 14 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 1.14 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Platense attack 0.73 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more

47%

level

31%

Platense scores more

22%

Argentinos JRS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79

A. Costa

Platense · D

8.2

Match Events

13'

Ayrton Costa

42'

N. Morgantini

46'

D. Zalazar← L. Sánchez

46'

G. Verón← A. Roa

54'

A. Costa↳ R. Contreras

55'

J. Herrera← Javier Cabrera

55'

Alan Rodríguez← Federico Redondo

60'

65'

65'

66'

74'

H. Tijanovich← J. Benítez

81'

M. Zárate← V. Taborda

81'

J. Esquivel← R. Contreras

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgentinosPlatense

Overview

70%Possession30%

11Total Shots8

4Corners2

16Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target3

6Off Target5

2Blocked0

4Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

530Total Passes233

413Accurate Passes124

78%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1