Interclube 0–0 ASA: Result & Stats | Girabola

Interclube

FT

0 – 0

ASA

8/25/2012

Girabola · Round 23Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Interclube58%

×Draw28%

ASA14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterclubeExpected goals in this matchASA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.53

Interclube

1.39

ASA

0.53

Interclube creates 162% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 27 away

1.47

creates per match

0.37

0.70

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Interclube

1.47

ASA

0.37

allows per match

Interclube

0.70

ASA

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Interclube+0.00on par

ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interclube ↓

ASA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Interclube or draw

86%

Interclube or ASA

72%

Draw or ASA

42%

Winning margin

Interclube wins by 2+

29%

ASA wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Interclube 1+ goals

75%

Interclube 2+ goals

40%

Interclube 3+ goals

16%

ASA 1+ goals

41%

ASA 2+ goals

10%

ASA 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Interclube (draw refunded)

80%

ASA (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interclube at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.70 · 115 matches

ASA away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interclube attack 1.47 + ASA defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

ASA attack 0.37 + Interclube defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Interclube scores more

58%

level

28%

ASA scores more

14%

Interclube at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Interclube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff