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Interclube vs Recreativo da Caála — Girabola 2012

Interclube
Interclube
FT
3 – 0
Recreativo da Caála
Recreativo da Caála
7/11/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 17Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Interclube53%
×Draw28%
Recreativo da Caála19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Interclube
1.39
Recreativo da Caála
0.71

Interclube creates 96% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 51 away

creates per match

Interclube
1.50
Recreativo da Caála
0.73

allows per match

Interclube
0.70
Recreativo da Caála
1.27

finishing

Interclube+0.00on par
Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interclube ↓

Recreativo da Caála →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Interclube or draw
81%
Interclube or Recreativo da Caála
72%
Draw or Recreativo da Caála
47%

Winning margin

Interclube wins by 2+
26%
Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Interclube 1+ goals
75%
Interclube 2+ goals
40%
Interclube 3+ goals
16%
Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals
51%
Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals
16%
Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Interclube (draw refunded)
74%
Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interclube at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.70 · 110 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interclube attack 1.50 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.73 + Interclube defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Interclube scores more
53%
level
28%
Recreativo da Caála scores more
19%

Interclube at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Interclube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Interclube vs Recreativo da Caála

Interclube beat Recreativo da Caála 3-0 in Girabola on July 11, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis.