Arendal 3–3 jerv: Result & Stats

Arendal

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

jerv

E. Helgesen 74'

V. Bergan 54'

M. Kvinge 39'

P. Wilson 88' (pen)

F. Schröter 11'

A. Endresen 3'

5/16/2024

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Norac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Arendal49%

×Draw22%

jerv29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArendalExpected goals in this matchjerv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.46

Arendal

1.95

jerv

1.46

Arendal creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 33 away

2.29

creates per match

1.79

1.12

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Arendal

2.29

jerv

1.79

allows per match

Arendal

1.12

jerv

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arendal+0.00on par

jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arendal ↓

jerv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Arendal or draw

71%

Arendal or jerv

78%

Draw or jerv

51%

Winning margin

Arendal wins by 2+

28%

jerv wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arendal 1+ goals

86%

Arendal 2+ goals

58%

Arendal 3+ goals

31%

jerv 1+ goals

77%

jerv 2+ goals

43%

jerv 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Arendal (draw refunded)

63%

jerv (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arendal at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

jerv away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arendal attack 2.29 + jerv defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.95

jerv attack 1.79 + Arendal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arendal scores more

49%

level

22%

jerv scores more

29%

Arendal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arendal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

11'

39'

44'

46'

M. Ugland← L. Markmanrud

54'

V. Bergan

66'

T. Wichne← F. Schröter

70'

J. Furaha← M. Wichmann

74'

E. Helgesen

78'

H. Stanic

83'

S. Andersen← P. Nersveen

84'

P. Skeie← A. Endresen

86'

A. Marić← J. Koko

88'

P. WilsonPenalty

89'

90+2'

90+2'

90+4'

90+4'

90+1'

M. Haga← S. Lille-Løvø

Arendal

jerv

20

19

4

3

5

▼

Markmanru

16

Krogelien

22

Stanic

6

▼

Wichmann

11

⚽

▼

Schröter

14

⚽

Wilson

25

⚽

▼

Endresen

1

Smedplass

17

▼

Nersveen

4

⚽

Bergan

16

⚽

Helgesen

2

Hultqvist

3

Lereng

8

▼

Koko

23

Ness

10

⚽

Kvinge

9

▼

Lille-Løv

7

Williams

Manager: V. Hansen

83'▲S. Andersen←▼P. Nersveen

86'▲A. Marić←▼J. Koko

90+1'▲M. Haga←▼S. Lille-Løvø

Arendal substitutes

5Andersen13Marić14Haga6Pllana19Ibishi20Basic21Løvseth27Skjævestad11Alemseged

Manager: E. Kjønø

46'▲M. Ugland←▼L. Markmanrud

66'▲T. Wichne←▼F. Schröter

70'▲J. Furaha←▼M. Wichmann

84'▲P. Skeie←▼A. Endresen

jerv substitutes

8Ugland2Wichne17Furaha13Skeie7Hauge18Richstad21Strangstad24Myklebust26Dirdal

Match Recap: Arendal vs jerv

Arendal and jerv drew 3-3 in 2. Division - Group 1 on May 16, 2024.

Goals: A. Endresen (3'), F. Schröter (11'), M. Kvinge (39'), V. Bergan (54'), E. Helgesen (74'), P. Wilson (88' pen).

The match was played at Norac Stadion in Arendal.

Arendal vs jerv — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Arendal vs jerv