Arenas Getxo 1–1 Tudelano: Result & Stats

Arenas Getxo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tudelano

Javi Zarzo 76'

Koldo Obieta 60'

8/31/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Campo de Fadura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Arenas Getxo39%

×Draw29%

Tudelano32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas GetxoExpected goals in this matchTudelano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.04

Arenas Getxo

1.18

Tudelano

1.04

Arenas Getxo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

0.85

creates per match

1.04

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Arenas Getxo

0.85

Tudelano

1.04

allows per match

Arenas Getxo

1.04

Tudelano

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Tudelano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw

68%

Arenas Getxo or Tudelano

71%

Draw or Tudelano

61%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+

17%

Tudelano wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals

69%

Arenas Getxo 2+ goals

33%

Arenas Getxo 3+ goals

12%

Tudelano 1+ goals

65%

Tudelano 2+ goals

28%

Tudelano 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)

55%

Tudelano (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 0.85 + Tudelano defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tudelano attack 1.04 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more

39%

level

29%

Tudelano scores more

32%

Arenas Getxo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Koldo Obieta

63'

Iñaki Jiménez← Fernando Delgado

64'

Asier Parra← Uranga

71'

Diego Fernández← Gorka Marcos

71'

Adrián Socorro← David Soto

76'

Javi Zarzo

78'

Unai Zamorano← Koldo Obieta

Arenas

Tudelano

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Olaizola

64'▲Asier Parra←▼Uranga

71'▲Diego Fernández←▼Gorka Marcos

Arenas Getxo substitutes

ParraFernándezCarrioIbarbiaMatadorFrauBorg

Manager: Lumbreras

63'▲Iñaki Jiménez←▼Fernando Delgado

71'▲Adrián Socorro←▼David Soto

78'▲Unai Zamorano←▼Koldo Obieta

Tudelano substitutes

JiménezSocorroZamoranoNavarroCortésLázaroLópez