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Arenas Getxo vs Real Avilés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
Preview
16:00
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
11/22/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Municipal de Fadura
45%
Arenas Getxo
model favours
45%23%33%
1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arenas Getxo45%
×Draw23%
Real Avilés33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.81
Real Avilés
1.52

Arenas Getxo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
1.63
Real Avilés
1.84

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.21
Real Avilés
2.00

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
67%
Arenas Getxo or Real Avilés
77%
Draw or Real Avilés
55%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
24%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
84%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
54%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
27%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
78%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
45%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
58%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 1.63 + Real Avilés defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Real Avilés attack 1.84 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
45%
level
23%
Real Avilés scores more
33%

Arenas Getxo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Getxo
WDDLW
Avilés
DLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arenas Getxo host Real Avilés

November 22, 2026: Arenas Getxo take on Real Avilés in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Arenas Getxo host Real Avilés at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.