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Arenas Getxo vs Pontevedra — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
Preview
15:00
Pontevedra
Pontevedra
5/23/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Estadio Municipal de Fadura
46%
Arenas Getxo
model favours
46%26%28%
1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arenas Getxo46%
×Draw26%
Pontevedra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.49
Pontevedra
1.10

Arenas Getxo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 65 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
1.63
Pontevedra
1.00

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.21
Pontevedra
1.35

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Pontevedra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
72%
Arenas Getxo or Pontevedra
74%
Draw or Pontevedra
54%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
23%
Pontevedra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
77%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
44%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
19%
Pontevedra 1+ goals
67%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
30%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
62%
Pontevedra (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 1.63 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.49

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
46%
level
26%
Pontevedra scores more
28%

Arenas Getxo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Getxo
WDDLW
Pontevedra
DLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arenas Getxo host Pontevedra

May 23, 2027: Arenas Getxo take on Pontevedra in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Arenas Getxo host Pontevedra at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.