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Arenas Getxo vs Ponferradina — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
Preview
15:00
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
5/9/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio Municipal de Fadura
40%
Arenas Getxo
model favours
40%28%32%

90% of Ponferradina’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arenas Getxo40%
×Draw28%
Ponferradina32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.24
Ponferradina
1.08

Arenas Getxo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
1.63
Ponferradina
0.95

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.21
Ponferradina
0.86

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
68%
Arenas Getxo or Ponferradina
72%
Draw or Ponferradina
60%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
17%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
71%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
35%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
13%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
66%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
29%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
55%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 1.63 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
40%
level
28%
Ponferradina scores more
32%

Arenas Getxo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Ponferradina’s matches
  • Ponferradina score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Getxo
WDDLW
Ponferradina
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arenas Getxo face Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Arenas Getxo hosting Ponferradina. Match starts May 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arenas Getxo host Ponferradina at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.